Trump, Carney Float a Deal to End the Auto-Tariff War

Just before the U.S. midterms, Canada and the United States are suddenly sounding chummy about the trade war they've been waging since summer. Make of that timing what you will.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday he'd held a constructive conversation with President Donald Trump about a possible trade deal, with both sides' negotiators due to hammer out an agreement over the next few weeks. Trump, landing in Iowa for a rally, offered his own characteristically precise assessment: "We have the concept of a very good deal with Canada."

For the auto crowd, the relevant piece is this: Washington and Ottawa have been talking about easing U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and automobiles. Neither side has announced any specifics. The negotiations also reportedly involve construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and the prospect of erasing tariffs that U.S. farmers pay on Canadian products.

"Part of the agreement is that our farmers will have to pay no tariffs," Trump said, though his own comments made clear final details aren't settled. He added the deal would be "great for our farmers, great for our country, and it'll be fine for Canada."

Carney framed his side around creating jobs, bringing down household costs, and protecting the country's language, culture, and sovereignty. "Our teams will now be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome," he wrote on social media.

The upbeat tone marks a turn from August, when Canada abandoned the talks after refusing U.S. demands that Carney called a threat to its sovereignty, its French-language protections, and its auto sector. Trump responded by slapping 50% tariffs on about $20 billion in Canadian goods, and Canada retaliated.

The sudden thaw also lines up with the political calendar. Trump's trade war has become an issue in Senate races in Michigan and Maine, where border-state voters feel the pain. Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has pushed to end the tariff fight.

Robert Bothwell, a University of Toronto historian, urged skepticism, comparing the improved mood to "five minutes of variable sunshine. Rain later." As recently as Wednesday, Carney himself said a deal before Tuesday's vote wasn't in the cards.

[Images: WhiteHouse.gov, Canada.gov, author]

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